19 Mar The holy trinity of foreign policy – Economic interests, political concerns and values in the Hungarian mission against the Islamic State

by Edit Inotai and Daniel Bartha

Hungary’s government surprised many commentators when announced back in mid-February, that it would send soldiers to Iraq to help the Western Alliance in its fight against the Islamic State. Hungary – long criticized for not abiding to Western democratic values – is offering 100-150 soldiers to the US led-mission in Iraq to eradicate Islamic extremists. According to the current plans, they will protect the training camps for Kurdish soldiers (Peshmerga), a mission similar to the one already accomplished by Hungarian soldiers in Afghanistan. Hungary is the only Central European country so far to offer military personnel. Its contribution is comparable to Germany’s, since Berlin offered in January a maximum of 100 soldiers to help train Kurdish fighters.

Why to go?

What is the Hungarian interest behind this announcement? Has Hungary internalized the foreign policy doctrine to start defend our countries „at the Hindukush” as it had been claimed by former German Defense Minister Peter Struck in 2002, arguing for the mission in Afghanistan? Or is the Hungarian offer less defense but rather politically or even more economically motivated? First and foremost, to regain the sympathy of the US government, and second, to help protect the Northern Iraqi (Kurdish) oil-fields at Shaikan, where MOL, the Hungarian oil company has an important, 20 percent investment share?  We would argue for the political and business motivations.

The timing is also significant. Although Washington had asked its allies to contribute to the fight against IS back in 2014, the Hungarian government came up with this gesture only after the new US Ambassador had arrived to Hungary. Budapest seems determined to open a new chapter in the US-Hungarian relationship, but rather than dealing with the repeated US criticism on the lack of checks and balances, corruption and blurred democratic principles in Hungary, the Orbán-government offers the Hungarian soldiers as a gesture to prove that they still belong to the Western alliances. They successfully build on the historical evidence that US-Hungarian relations have been fundamentally good in defence, Hungary contributed to the Afghanistan mission, which was highly praised by US politicians also in times of very tense bilateral relations. The question is –but this is to be answered by the US administration – whether this rather smart gesture by Orbán can mitigate or even mute the criticism in other areas.

As Wojciech Lorenz , security policy expert of the Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM) commented to CEID:  „Hungary has a bad press in Europe and in the US and has been presented as one of those countries, which are weakening the European solidarity when dealing with the Russian threat. Although politicians often claim that NATO is a different story than the EU, lack of solidarity at the European level is also undermining the credibility of NATO’s Article5 on guarantees and cohesion of the Alliance. In the effect Hungary found itself under significant pressure in NATO and from the US.  Hence we can observe some correction in Hungarian policy. Hungary decided to contribute to NATO Baltic Air Policing mission this year. By doing so it tries to strengthen solidarity and mitigate the lack of trust within NATO. At the same time Budapest sends troops to Iraq to support anti ISIS coalition. This is an attempt to strengthen the cohesion of the alliance by recognizing both threats. This should also be interpreted as an attempt to improve relations with the United States. We have to remember that credibility can be undermined easily, but it requires a long term predictability to regain it.”

The Kurdish connection

Does Hungary have a real interest in Iraq? Yes, and it is well in line with the country’s current pragmatic, interest-based foreign policy strategy. It is rightly said, as Hungarian Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade, Péter Szijjártó stated in a recent interview with conservative online site Mandiner that „the Islamic State launched a universal offensive against the western value community. Since Hungary is a member of this community, we also have obligations.

But there is much more to it than common values with the West. Hungary has built up an excellent relationship with the Kurdish autonomous region in Iraq. The government has recently opened a consular office in Erbil, the region’s capital and supported Kurdish Peshmerga forces with military equipment. The consular office is located right next to MOL Kalegran, the Hungarian oil company’s affiliate in the region. Northern Kurdistan is rich in oil, providing excellent opportunities for MOL, which has already two big investments (Shaikan oil and Khor Mor  gas fields) in the area.  There are only two things missing for good business: peace and security. While profit margin in the oil industry has become minimal in the last few years, the Hungarian oil company had to write down huge losses through its Croatian affiliate INA, which had its most valuable exploration sites in Syria. Currently exploration in Kurdistan is the most profitable upstream activity of MOL which has recorded a 17% drop in its profit rate in 2014. The Hungarian state has bought a 21% share in MOL in 2011, but due to the changing international environment, they had to realize a 200 billion forint loss on their stocks by 2013. What is more dangerous politically then shrinking profit, is the further devaluation of the company. Compared to these numbers the estimated annual costs of a military deployment is „only“ about 10-30 billion Hungarian forint.

Universal values and the fight against terrorism are also important, but chances are that political and business motivations are somewhat more important for the present Hungarian government. Péter Siklósi, Assistant Secretary of Defense also confirmed to Hungarian weekly “Figyelő” that the strenghtening  of US-Hungarian relations and MOL’s presence in the Kurdish territories were among the arguments for the mission.

There is however, still one hurdle Hungarian soldiers have to face before they can be deployed to Iraq earliest in May. According to the Constitution in case of a deployment not related to our NATO or EU commitments, the Hungarian National Assembly must decide about the mission with two-thirds majority, which the Fidesz-government lacks since they lost the Veszprém constituency a few weeks ago. Help would come from the opposition, either from the only liberal MP,  from MPs of the Együtt (both announced to support without prior conditions) or from the Democratic Coalition ( although binding to certain assurances), since the Hungarian Socialist Party seems to be undecided, while the green opposition LMP and the extreme right Jobbik are strongly against the mission. FIDESZ would like to create a wider coalition, involving at least the leftist parties. The motivation behind is to create an insurance policy in case of potential losses, but as a side effect this mission can create a possible basis for increased foreign policy coordination between the government and certain opposition parties.

Ms. Edit Inotai is a journalist and a Senior Fellow at Centre for Euro-Atlantic Integration and Democracy (CEID)

Mr.Daniel Bartha is the Executive Director of the Centre for Euro-Atlantic Integration and Democracy (CEID)

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the publisher. © CEID, 2015