A systemic crisis or a temporary loss of confidence

According to Kelly Gibson, campaign manager at Hamburger Gibson Creative, the current wave of disillusionment amongst American citizens with their political elite is not as severe as it seems. It is not that people are losing faith in the credibility of the American political institutions as such, instead they are frustrated due to the incompetence of the Obama administration which failed to live up to the expectations it created with an extremely successful 2008 campaign.  In Gibson’s view, the unexpected success of Obama, who was relatively unknown and definitely not part of the inner circle at that time, is behind the emergence of alternative candidates in this year’s presidential campaign. In fact, the reason why Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders could get so far in the primaries is due to the combination of frustrated voters and opportunistic candidates offering an alternative for those who could not identify with neither Hillary Clinton, nor Marco Rubio. Tamás Magyarics, Head of Department at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade, offered a slightly different explanation of the roots of such disillusionment. While Mr. Magyarics agreed that the feeling of betrayal President Obama caused to many of his former supporters was an important factor, he also underlined the importance of long-term social and economic malfunctions that contributed to the frustration of Americans, many of whom cannot cope with the rapidly changing world of globalization and technological advancements.

Personal charm over political agenda

As Gibson explained, today’s campaigning shifted towards an odd mixture of serious politics and entertainment. It is especially true in the case of Donald Trump, former reality king and prominent businessman, who apparently only aims at entertaining his electoral base with whatever provocation he finds handy and is incapable of understanding that he will actually have to follow through with his promises if elected. For someone who has never held office before, understanding the kind of responsibility that comes with being able to significantly influence people’s life might well be a challenge. But Gibson pointed out that the superficial tendency was also there on the voters’ side who seem to be more interested in the personal charm of their chosen candidate than in the actual political agenda. According to Gibson, what makes Bernie Sanders so attractive to many is his image as a guy you would want to have a glass of wine with – while perhaps you would not feel the same about Hillary, no matter how hard she tries to prove that she is indeed ’one of us’. In her view, the fact that most voters base their decision about the future leader of their country on personal sympathy reflects severe deficiencies of the American educational system.

Foreign policy – no dramatic change to come

In Mr. Magyarics’s view, Hillary is expected to be a bit more hawkish in her foreign policy, showing more eagerness in pursuing the democracy agenda. At the same time, she is very likely to be a little bit more of the same. The question is whether people will be satisfied with the same. Whoever the next president of the United States will be, both panelists found the chance of a dramatic shift in foreign policy very unlikely. Even in case of a Trump presidency, he could simply not go through with his far-fetched ideas due to the system of checks and balances. As Gibson explained, the American political system is built in a way that it is not possible to make radical changes. Politicians need to act within and in cooperation with the existing rules, they cannot overwrite or ignore them.